Is Chuba Hubbard ready for more snaps?
Canales recently named Hubbard the first-choice running back. Here's what to make of the deal.
CHARLOTTE — It’s the middle of the 2019 season, and Christian McCaffrey is vengeful. Grinding his teeth. Tightening his jaw. Clenching his fists. Doing whatever a Pro Bowl, all-NFL running back would do when he’s traded for chump change.
“Like, you guys don’t want me anymore. That’s really what it is,” McCaffrey told Barstool Sports. “‘Well, they got a lot for you,’ nah, like you think you’re better off without me, that’s what it is.”
The emotions and anger that run rampant in McCaffrey’s nerves quickly turn peaceful when he realizes that he’s left Carolina, a mediocre NFC South team stuck somewhere between rebuilding, shipping out players, and winning, for a Super Bowl contender in the 49ers. He goes on to win the NFL OPOY award, make the Pro Bowl twice, and see some of the most touches and scrimmage yards in the entire league.
After the Panthers traded McCaffrey for a mighty list of draft-round picks, they’ve looked like a team without direction or a rushing game to lean on. In McCaffrey’s absence, the squad has bounced around from D’Onta Foreman, Miles Sanders, and Chuba Hubbard as primary running backs, none of which have made as big of an impact as CMC did.
The return for McCaffrey ended up being some draft picks that added up to Jonathan Mingo, DJ Johnson, and collateral in mid-draft trades. Even more salt added to the wound.
The one bright spot in the Panthers rushing room has been Chuba Hubbard. A fourth-round pick from Oklahoma State, Hubbard saw increased involvement in the Panthers’ offense following CMC’s injury, Miles Sanders’ inconsistencies, and the uncertainty surrounding the Panthers’ offense.
Hubbard’s career could take a big jump upward with the hiring of Dave Canales and his optimism regarding Carolina’s running backs. Not only did Canales tell Observer reporter Mike Kaye that he was “excited about proving to you how stubborn I can be with the running game,” but he also named Hubbard the top back entering training camp.
The Panthers have already signed Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, two 330-pound behemoths skilled at zone blocking at the guard position. They beefed up their offensive line while retaining key pieces like Ickey Ekwonu and Austin Corbett. It looks time for Carolina’s run game to come to fruition, and Hubbard could perfectly suit that.
Hubbard’s best quality is his agility. He ran a 4.48 40-yard dash, good for the top eight in his draft class among running backs. The Oklahoma State alum is most dangerous when he sees an open field. His explosiveness and speed allow him to size up the secondary on potential one-on-ones and, more than not, walk away with the ball.
Most importantly, Hubbard faced a similar situation that he could face at Carolina with Oklahoma State, where he saw a lot of carries as the lead back. He cleared 2,000 yards in 328 total carries — the most in the NCAA and good for around 25 carries per game. Although OSU as a whole was mediocre at best, he finished eighth in Heisman voting, second among running backs.
His production fell mightily in 2020. Despite averaging 110 rushing yards per game on 119 total carries, Hubbard struggled with a high ankle sprain, missing the last four games of the season and dropping his draft stock heavily. He went from a potential first-rounder in 2019 to a fourth-rounder a year later.
In difficult circumstances and countless reshapings of the Panthers rushing room, Hubbard eked out a role as a prominent face of the offense. He ended up assuming a starring role in the chaos of the Carolina season, taking on 238 carries with 902 yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also saw 1,135 yards from scrimmage. No matter how you turn it or flip it, it’s an extraordinary number, especially with an offensive line ill-prepared to support the run game.
He also has some potential as a receiver in screens. He saw 44 targets fall his way, 39 of which he caught for a yield of 233 yards. His ability to explode with the ball in his hands and the fact that he doesn’t drop balls often gives Panthers OC Brad Idzik some versatility in passing schemes.
Hubbard is especially valued by the Panthers front office because of his young age, high potential, and low salary. At just 24 years old, Hubbard has barely scratched his full potential in the league. He didn’t see a lot of involvement his first two years in the league, and his breakout 2023 season was behind that immobile o-line that couldn’t stop anything. Despite that, he still put up decent numbers while displaying some flashes of brilliance.
Now, behind an elite group of big guys that Panthers assistant coach Harold Goodwin tabs as “all being capable of being high-quality players, Pro Bowl-level players — not to put pressure on any of ‘em’,” Hubbard could feast. We’ve seen glimmers of what he can do as an All-American-level running back, a four-star coming out of high school, even under extended snaps, and performing well in the Carolina trenches.
It makes perfect sense for Canales and Carolina to squeeze every drop of Hubbard they can before it comes to time to negotiate Hubbard’s rookie deal. Hubbard’s rookie contract runs for four years, paying him $4.1 million throughout his entire deal. That’s just around $1 million per year, a splash in the pond for Carolina. Analysis indicates Hubbard should have a contract near equal to Sanders’ — four years and $25.4 million.
He becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season, so the Panthers will have to give him a big payday soon — but it doesn’t change the fact that it’s in Carolina’s best interests to use Hubbard as much as they can.
Although Hubbard isn’t the set-and-stone starter — Canales and the coaching staff are reportedly letting Hubbard and Sanders compete for the lead back position — it looks like Hubbard is the frontrunner by a lot. And it leaves Sanders, brought in to revamp the Carolina running game, in an uncomfortable limbo.
Sanders saw a Pro Bowl year with the Philadelphia Eagles, reaching 1,269 rushing yards on 259 carries while seeing 20 receptions on 78 receiving yards. However, Philly didn’t want to pay him what would be a gargantuan contract extension and forced Sanders into free agency. He signed with Carolina on a four-year, $25.4 million deal that would attempt to pair the dominant passing game (Young) with an unstoppable rushing game (Sanders).
Although the offensive line (for the umpteenth time) made it difficult for Sanders to post last season’s numbers, he struggled a lot with injuries and made a lot of mistakes the Panthers didn’t anticipate. In addition to that, he’s not a huge playmaker, has poor vision, and could hide behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. In Carolina, his flaws were exposed.
If the coaching staff continues with Hubbard over Sanders, Sanders won’t be isolated on the field, doomed to help block for Young and Hubbard for eternity. He’ll still see some numbers as a secondary back, but nowhere near the snap count that such a huge contract would warrant.
“I think that [battle for RB1] kind of sorts itself out as we go throughout the offseason and go through the preseason,” OC Idzik told press. “And you let them compete right up until game one.”
Could we see Sanders in more of a receiving role? Maybe. Hubbard could dominate snaps and force Sanders into a position he doesn’t know well. The issue is Sanders has been very inconsistent with passing — he drops the ball more than you would want and has never seen a huge target role.
“I’m not going to say where I think things went wrong,” Sanders told The Athletic ahead of the Panthers’ Week 18 loss. “I just know next year I’ll be better and ready, and hopefully I can make this year disappear,” he said. “That’s all I gotta say.”